Jan. 7th, 2011

tarod45: (working)
So, I don't muse on sports all that often. This is the first year I've actually paid any attention to the mechanics of the football playoffs. I only got into football a couple of years ago, at which point it all came down to voodoo, as far as I was concerned. Then last year, the Steelers just fell to fucking pieces and I didn't care quite enough about the Cowboys, and so it didn't matter. This year, the Steelers at least have got a shot (even if it was the Cowboys who fell to fucking pieces) and I'm paying attention, and when the whole process isn't giving me a headache, it's really very interesting.

So. The AFC (and for the moment, I only care about the AFC) looks like this:

1. Patriots
2. Steelers
3. Colts
4. Chiefs
5. Ravens
6. Jets

This weekend, the Colts play the Jets and the Chiefs play the Ravens. I'm just going to muse on some of the outcomes and what they might mean for us getting to the Superbowl (verdict: unlikely but possible).

I haven't been paying much mind to the Colts this year, as we haven't played them at all. From what I've gathered, they've had a pretty mediocre year, not one of Manning's best. The Jets, on the other hand, have been having a wildly uneven year. They've gone from brilliant to just awful, and back again. It's hard to say if pretty consistent mediocrity will beat fatally inconsistent brilliance.

And really, it's the Colts/Jets game that's going to be important. Baltimore is going to cream Kansas City. I don't think there's anyone who has any doubts of that. The Ravens are going to be winning that game. So, it comes down to whether Indianapolis or New York wins.

If the Colts win, they'll absolutely be the high seed winner, and they'll play us, while Baltimore will play the Patriots. This might well be the optimum outcome. I'm pretty sure we can beat the Colts this year. Meanwhile, the Ravens have beaten the Patriots already this season. They could do it again. If so, we'd likely end up playing them after that, and we're pretty evenly matched with them. I'd say it'd be about 50/50, but we absolutely can beat them. And the Ravens play nasty, so even if they lose to the Patriots, they might beat them up enough for us to snatch a victory in the Conference Championship.

On the other hand, if the Jets win, they'll be the automatic low seed, meaning they'll play the Patriots, while we play the Ravens. This outcome... not so favorable. Once again, we've got a fair to good chance of beating the Ravens. However, as previously mentioned, the Ravens are all about doing maximum damage to the opposing team, and, being our division rivals, they've got a particular hate-on for us, and for specific, key members of our team. If they can take out Ward, Polomalu, or Rothlisberger, they absolutely will. Anything to leave us unprepared to play against whoever wins the Patriots/Jets match-up. Which... well.

The Jets have beaten the Patriots this season. And then were unceremoniously creamed in the rematch. They could muster themselves to beat the Patriots again. Or they could continue with their ongoing tailspin and just serve as an appetizer. Even on the tailspin, though, the Jets beat us. So. Most likely, the Patriots will crush the Jets, and we'll limp over to New England and get our butts kicked. Or, by some miracle, the Jets will win and come to Pittsburgh, where... well, we'll just have to hope they fall to pieces again.

In the unlikely event, though, that we somehow triumph over the Patriots or whoever beats the Patriots, and we go the Superbowl, we will then have to face either the Saints or the Falcons. We've played both of these teams already this year. We beat the Falcons (one of only three teams, including the Saints!), and were steamrolled by the Saints. I'm not sure we could beat the Falcons again. I mean, on the one hand, we beat them without Big Ben, but we beat them on the first game of the season. You could very legitimately argue that they weren't really warmed up yet. And we just barely beat them in a very low-scoring game. So. Maybe, maybe not; but I'm tending towards not. As for the Saints? I'm going with "no." I'd be very interested to see the game played between the Saints and the Patriots -- I honestly think that's what's going to happen, though I'm really pulling for us and the Falcons. But, yeah, us and the Saints? Going with the Saints.

So, very long story short, I'm thinking that we have a 25% chance at best of making it to the Superbowl in the first place, and only a, say, 40% chance of winning that if we get there. But, hey, we've won the Superbowl with essentially this same team and much lower odds. So. We'll see.


tarod45: (Default)

April 2012

123456 7

Most Popular Tags

Page Summary

Style Credit

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags
Powered by Dreamwidth Studios